Vista Blog Our Latest Thoughts And Trends.

I can't drive 55

7/17/2018
“When I drive that slow, you know it’s hard to steer. What used to take two hours now takes all day.”-Sammy Hagar The year was 1984 and this was Sammy Hagar’s biggest hit before joining Van Halen a year later.

Some thought there was social commentary on the excesses of the American Culture. On that, I have no comment.

How this title applies to our current market, I will comment on. The market, in my opinion, has come to a subtle intersection. Clearly, we are below the all-time highs reached in January, now 6 months ago. In order to break out above those highs, the market will need to accelerate. “I can’t drive 55!”

If the market fails to accelerate, I believe we will enter another consolidation in the continuing correction that began in January. … This is my base case scenario.

If the market accelerates to new highs, we will need to see a strong breakout to continue this bull market.

“I can’t drive 55.” I don’t see a breakout in the cards at this point. So, “write me up for 125” or “I can’t get out of second gear?”

My best read of the market, further consolidation through the seasonally weak period this summer. When the seasonally stronger period arrives this fall, we will be set up for the third year of the presidential cycle. Historically, this is the best year for the market.

The average correction in a cyclical bull market lasts just under 8 months.
“Write me up for 125”, I would welcome the acceleration to all-time highs.