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Rev-e-la-tion

6/4/2020

My revelation, the U.S. economy is unbelievably resilient.  The U.S. citizens around the globe are remarkably resilient...Congratulations!  Well done!  Almost...

There are 4 things I want to see happen to sound the "All Clear".

1) We need to see unemployment peak and begin to recede - I think this is imminent, maybe as early as next week.

2)  We need to see the PMI index rise above 40 - last I saw was 36.  The PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) is a survey of company's Purchasing Managers that asks how business is going.  It is important - the more supplies ordered means the company can make more products for sale to the consumer.  This is also imminent.

3)  Rotation.  The market leaders need to change.  Technology had been the leading group for some time - it lost the top spot last week in performance to Energy, which was last year's laggard.  There are additional laggards coming to the front including consumer and industrial stocks. 

4)  Interest rates need to go up.  In the last 3 recessions, interest rates started going up just before the end of the recession.  This indicates demand for capital - business owners want to resume pre-recession projects.

This is not an "all clear" that indicates there will not be downside in the market or the economy.  It just means he "Panic of the Pandemic" is ending.  Indeed, the market is setting records for the swiftness in the rebound.  In my view, it would be a good time for the market to take a breather.  One of the things that has become abundantly clear during my career is the market does not exist to please me.

The weight of the evidence leads me to believe this is not a good time to throw caution to the wind.  Patience is a lost virtue to some extent in our "on demand" economy.  We will exercise the patience I have learned over the years.

One of our country's greatest heroes, Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. was a man of patience and discipline.  In one of his most famous quotes he said, "Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that.  Hate cannot drive out hate; only Love can do that."  Our country and our world have been through a great deal recently.  Let us reach out a hand to help our fellow humans.

One of the most enduring visions of hope I remember in my lifetime is the way this country responded after the attacks of 9/11.  Many of us knew people that lost their lives.  Everyone saluted and cheered the first responders - our lives were changed forever.

Through great tragedy we unite, to become a better country and better people.  There are still problems to be worked out.  The recent outrage at the occurrence in Minnesota and the aftermath, expose we still have a long path to healing.  Let us as a people band together and rise above the current circumstances, daring to become the best humans we can.

  May you be healthy.

  May you be happy.

May you be at peace.

R2